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November 19, 2006

Al Gore on Climate Change

Following Monkton's two pieces the Sunday Telegraph has Al Gore this week. Obviously Al hasn't actually understood what the Stern Review actually revealed (rather than what is said in the executive summary).

So let's explore its     conclusions: the report suggests that it will cost more to allow     global warming to continue unabated than it will to begin to take     thoughtful actions now. In other words, the impact on living     standards could be quite small, if rational, thoughtful policies     were put into place and if government were to work with industry to     exploit the economic opportunities rather than allow global warming     to run amok.

Well, for that to be true Stern had to take the worst outcome of the 40 SRES scenarios, add in some feedbacks, use a very low discount rate, insist that the costs of mitigation were very low (one fifth of  what the UN thinks likely) and generally fit the evidence to his theory.

And using his very own logic we can point to other actions that should be taken. The A2 family of scenarios (which is what Stern used) uses a model of the world where we persist in having regional economies. This contributes to slow growth in global GDP and such slow growth contributes to population growth (to 15 billion in 2100). We also see many poor countries staying on the wrong side of the environmental Kuznets Curve as a result of their poverty (for example, last week's report on forests: everyone richer than Chile, at GDP per capita of $4,600 or so, is seeing forests grow).

Now, other scenarios exist, such as the A1 family. These suppose a great degree of globalization, more emphasis on market solutions to problems, and thus much greater associated economic growth.

Now, the logic of the Stern Review is that we should indeed care for the wealth of our descendants (something I'm fine with for sure). In the A2 family global GDP is around $250 trillion in 2100 spread over 15 billion people. In the A1 it is $550 trillion spread over 7 billion. So, if we are indeed to care for the wealth of our descendants, we should be attempting to push the world in the A1 direction, yes? Not the A2?

So, as the A1 direction will make our descendants four times richer than the A2, we should right now, under the logic of the Stern Review, be calling for more markets, more globalization, yes? Unlike, say, Caroline Lucas who would have us retreat even from the limited amount of global trade in the A2 family.

The joy of moves towards A1 include the fact that this will not require any sacrifices from us at all: on the contrary, they will make us richer as well as our descendants. Truly, a no regrets policy of the type that the Greens continually tell us we should adopt.

It's also true that we can have mitigation policies as well as A1 if we should wish: but if we are to have, as the Stern Review insists, care for the future wealth of humanity at the core of our response to climate change, then before we even start talking about them we need to get the basic direction of the economy right.

Globalization for Gaia!

November 19, 2006 in Climate Change | Permalink


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Of course if one were to be so uncharitable as to assume almost all "environmentalists" don't give a hoot about the environment but merely want to use it as a stick to beat technology, capitalism & individual freedom with then they won't rush to hail your thoughts.

Posted by: Neil Craig | Nov 19, 2006 7:27:08 PM

All the talk and written reports about; Climate Change, Carbon Taxes, Clean Coal, Carbon Capture and Storage, Nuclear’s back on the table – have probably contributed to the de-forestation of Norway and added a degree or more to global warming…lets stop talking and take action! One major item that’s running out and running out fast is time to do anything to put a stop to the damage we are causing.
Global warming and climate change are a major concern and action sooner rather than later needs to take place. Renewable energy sources are being taken up as an alternative; however, you need 300-400 wind generators to replace a small coal or gas power station. A company called Nikkogen based in the UK seems to have a serious answer to a lot of the issues mentioned above. They are looking to locally manufacture in the UK, and overseas in USA, Canada, Australia, Japan and China their zero-emission carbon free Power Systems that are scalable up to nuclear power station size. The website nikkogen.com is an interesting site and well worth a look; let’s hope we see these systems in place as soon as possible. Nikkogen’s website: www.nikkogen.com

Posted by: ray Jenkins | Nov 20, 2006 5:15:12 AM

"Nikkogen"... "Our technology is subject to a patent pending approval, we shall not, therefore, be providing a detailed description of our systems here. What we can provide however is a general overview of the technology and its many applications."

Hmmm.... No "general overview of the technology", just a load of advertising puff intimating a fantastical new totally-emission free method of generating electricity that appears not to use any of the known systems...?

And what looks very much like a "SkypeIn" telephone number...?

Keep your hands on your wallets folks! :-)

Posted by: pogo | Nov 20, 2006 3:06:35 PM

Keep your hands on your wallets folks! :-)

What do you expect - it is pantomine season after all.

"You mean these beans aren't magic?"

Posted by: J | Nov 20, 2006 3:41:05 PM


My names Ray Jenkins, I’m the Director Business Development for Nikkogen Ltd a new privately own company. I’m pleased to read that you are discussing Nikkogen and its new exciting zero-emission technology that is about to enter production.

Nikkogen is a UK registered company that has a temporary office in South Wales. We are currently in negotiation with a number of organisations with a view of where to build our manufacturing facility and employ a large number of staff.

As you might appreciate, to set up a new manufacturing facility, employ staff and produce a product can be both very expensive and take time. Fortunately we have access to an existing manufacturing facility to start almost immediately production of our systems. This is why we have made the recent announcements and hope to announce very soon our first customer.

Nikkogen which is a great place to work, has obtained the worldwide licensed sales rights for zero-emission Prime Mover Technology. The technology has been designed by a team of engineers who have submitted patents and registered designs for their technology and who will remain as technology consultants for Nikkogen.
We have witnessed this new innovative technology in operation. The technology has shown us how by applying new engineering practices, to existing proven technology it is possible to develop new exciting technology advances – just look at what Dyson did with the vacuum cleaner.
We are interested in spreading the good news and new technology to as wide a market as possible to provide both financial and reduced CO2 emissions benefits. Nikkogen is looking to license further production of this technology with assistance from Business Partners in USA, Canada, Australia, Japan and China. As I type this email, I can confirm that we now have a representative for North America who is able to provide a local response for those companies’s interested in Nikkogen’s technology in the USA and Canada.

I would like to copy below part of my response to a company interested like youselves to find out more about the technology.

“Thank you for your interest in Nikkogen’s zero-emission power station systems. Our systems have been designed to provide continuous electricity output independent of climatic conditions. The power stations can be independently located for local distributed electricity services or grid connected for national electricity pool service requirement.

The power stations are physically similar to modern business park type building construction so as to minimise any visual impact concerns. In fact, I have recently advised an interested party that the whole power station if required could be built underground with no external indication of its existence.
For patent reasons I cannot go into any detail concerning the construction or operation of the Prime Mover System, all that I am prepared to say is that the engineering and energy principles have been maintained. The technology has been fully tested. I can confirm that the energy out to “drive” a suitably sized electrical alternator is more than sufficient taking all possible energy losses into consideration.
We have calculated the costs for our zero-emission power stations based on the following criteria;
We supply installation and commission the total power station.
We supply staff to initially run the system for an agreed initial period and we also provide full operational training for required staff before handover and self operating.
If required, we can provide a totally managed solution where we supply the complete power station and operating staff. The power station can be owner purchased and operated with nikkogen staff contracted to operates the power station or nikkogen can own and operate on a long term leasing type arrangement with the customer. This allows non utility organisations such as large retail company’s to benefit from controlling their electricity costs, obtain carbon tax credits and in most cases obtain additional revenue from excess electricity generation.
The current costs for our zero-emission power stations are similar in price to the capital costs of gas fired systems. Our supplied systems, however, do not have the ongoing gas fuel costs which can be a considerable cost over the lifetime of a gas fired power station.
If you require a budgetary cost for a specific system from Nikkogen, please supply details of what is required, where it is to be located and timeframe to supply the system.”
If you have any specific questions, please email them via the Nikkogen website where I know we will endeavour to provide as professional a response as is possible.
Ray Jenkins
website: www.nikkogen.com

Posted by: ray Jenkins | Nov 22, 2006 4:39:49 PM

If this is such ground-breaking technology, why hasn't it been publicised elsewhere? This would appear to be the answer to all our dreams yet you're spreading the news on blogs? Pull the other one, Ray.

Posted by: Richard | Nov 23, 2006 1:31:06 AM

Maybe they're powered by redundant UFO engines salvaged from Groom Lake..?

Or, they've managed to harness all the hot air that's generated in Westminster..?

Posted by: pogo | Nov 24, 2006 11:20:45 AM

Hmmm, The 0121 288 is a Skype In number, the 0121 275 is an Energis number. Why would a startup in South Wales have two Birmingham based numbers ?

Also how does the technology work ? Like you say, cannot hide behind "protected by patent application"

Posted by: robinh | Nov 28, 2006 1:45:54 PM