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April 30, 2005

Bye Bye, Euro.

Certain EU economies are struggling, mostly as a result of thier structural problems on the suppply side. Germany being a poster boy for this problem, 5 million unemployed, low to zero growth, stifling regulation, huge tax wedges and a heavy tax burden in general.
As minor examples of the bureaucracy, consider that only at railway stations can a baker bake bread on a Sunday, a shop may have sales for only two, two week, periods a year, the amount of discount allowed is controlled by law and shop opening hours are still controlled nationally. There is even (although I find this hard to believe) supposed to be a law that one must recycle drinks cans to the specific store one bought them from, not just recycle them in general.
So, what should be done in such a situation? A bonfire of regulation one might think? Unclog the arteries of the economy with a bit of supply side work?
Err, no. Appoint a 70s style Keynesian as the Chief Economist for the European Central Bank? Ramp up deficit spending (already over 3% of GDP) ? Lower interest rates? Run the printing presses? More State spending?
Unfortunately, yes.

Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder now hopes to replace him early next year with Professor Peter Bofinger, the leading advocate of a ''New Deal'' spending blitz to cut unemployment and lift the country out of protracted slump.

The government slashed its growth forecast for 2005 yesterday from 1.6pc to 1pc after a week of grim confidence figures from German industry. Morgan Stanley has warned that the country may already be in recession.

The slot of chief economist is tacitly reserved for Germany under a deal giving the post of president to France's Jean-Claude Trichet.

Mr Bofinger's call for a massive stimulus through extra public spending would appear to shatter what remains of the EU's Stability and Growth Pact, which limits budget deficits to 3pc of GDP. Germany's deficit is already expected to touch 4pc this year.

A member of Mr Schroeder's Council of Economic Experts, he is a follower of Karl Schiller, the 1970s economy minister and patron saint of dirigiste demand-management - now broadly discredited among economists.

This might sound a little overdramatic but if this guy gets in it might lead to the death of the euro itself.
On a lighter note, his appointment would be a signal to buy property in euros. Financing costs (as they already are here in Portugal) would be less than inflation. Free money, in effect.

April 30, 2005 in European Union | Permalink

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» Another Futile Blitz from Isaac Schrödinger
So, what is Europe doing to overcome her economic woes? Tim Worstall:Appoint a 70s style Keynesian as the Chief Economist [Read More]

Tracked on May 1, 2005 3:30:54 AM

» German Economic Malaise from The Stalwart
There are many factors contributing to Germany's economic malaise. A few possible examples: From here. As minor examples of the bureaucracy, consider that only at railway stations can a baker bake bread on a Sunday, a shop may have sales [Read More]

Tracked on May 6, 2005 8:39:49 PM

Comments

Bofinger
He's the man, the man with the midas touch

Posted by: lemuel | Apr 30, 2005 12:44:41 PM

Did people who bought property just before the start of the American Great depression "win".

Does anyone have strategies for dealing with keynsian stupidity and winning?

If so please email me!

Posted by: Rob Read | Apr 30, 2005 1:20:30 PM

"There is even (although I find this hard to believe) supposed to be a law that one must recycle drinks cans to the specific store one bought them from, not just recycle them in general."
'Tis true. Since Jan 1st 2003. Initially you'd get given a little piece of paper to prove you'd bought a can or plastic bottle at that individual store, and you could take it back and get your 25cent deposit back there, and only there. With time shops are setting up schemes that they'll take back. There's the "P" scheme where you can take any can or bottle with a "P" logo on it to any store which is part of the P scheme. I'm not 100% sure because - and absolutely no-one could have precicted this beforehand - it costs me so much money/time that I no longer buy such products. According to Die Zeit (14/2004) additional cost of the scheme per can is 5 cents.
Oh I almot forgot. You don't have to pay a deposit on *all* cans. It's not the size or type of the can that matters, but rather the contents. Thus one has to pay €0.25 per can of bier or cola, but nothing on a can of say, pre-mixed Coke and Jack Daniels. Wouldn't be complicated ehough otherwise.
There's actually enough to write a proper post about this, and there's another, serious economic effect that I haven't gone into here.

Posted by: actualfactual | May 1, 2005 9:54:07 PM