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June 15, 2007

A Frank Field Calculation

Another attempt at explaining that Frank Field calculation from Mark W via email:

Frank Field used DWP's Tax and Benefit Model Table 1.3g, which gives £486.59 (nett pre costs) for 16 hours NMW, a perfect match for his £487 splash; but that includes credit (but not payment) for £100/week childcare. He then compared this with Table 1.6d, same except married-couple with no childcare; to exceed £487 nett here you need £620 gross earning - at £5.35 NMW this makes 115.9 hours, again a perfect match for his incorrect 116 hour claim. (this explanation by Rwendland at LabourHome).
 
It can be argued that childcare costs should not count as household income/welfare spending, in the same way as the "free" state education does not so count. So, let's look at post-housing, post-childcare incomes instead. Our single Mum from Table 1.3g has £209 post housing/childcare income. On the basis of eqivalised incomes, a two-adult, two-child household needs a 40% higher income, i.e. £293 per week. To arrive at a post-housing/childcare income of £293, the single-earner in Table 1.6d needs to earn £600 gross, or 112 hours at the NMW. So Frank Field was pretty close whichever way you argue it.
 
Or to look at in the way Patricia Morgan does, if Single Mum meets Unemployed Man, and he moves in, how many hours does he have to work to keep total income at same level? Her household's net income is currently £209 and his is £57 (Income Support rate, 2006-07), makes £266. Go back to Table 1.6d, find £266 in the post housing/childcare column, that's £500 gross he needs to earn, or 93 hours at NMW.
 
So the message is, if Unemployed Boyfriend moves in and Single Mum gives up work to look after kids, he has to work at least 93 hours (and give up his free social housing) for them to break even. If that's not discouraging work and marriage then I don't know what is.

June 15, 2007 in Your Tax Money at Work | Permalink

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Comments

As a postscript, that figure of £500 or £600 per week is typical full time male earnings, maybe even above median. As long as a male on that salary lives on his own, pays maybe £120 in housing costs, his weekly net income is £250 or so, perfectly acceptable.

Let's imagine he and Single Mum fall in love and he moves in, she thinks, "Great, we've got a decent wage coming in, I can give up work and look after kids" (it would appear to be nonsense for the State to pay her £100 for childcare so that she can go an earn £85.60). So in a moment of madness she does ...

"Oh s***, we are no better off at all" says Single Mum.

"Oh s****, I am a lot worse off, I used to have £250 all for myself and now I have to share in £250 (or whatever) with three others" says Average Earner Boyfriend.

Posted by: Mark Wadsworth | Jun 15, 2007 4:26:51 PM

In the calculations it shows both being private renters.

Imagine what it would be considering the far higher chances of the single mum getting subsidised council accommodation?

Posted by: Roger Thornhill | Jun 15, 2007 6:01:12 PM

Tim:

But that still leave Frank making a rhetorical comparison between a single parent in receipt of tax credits and a two-parent family which does not, surely?

Running the single mum + unemployed man scenario in a real world calculation (man works 37.5 hrs @ NMW, rent set to maximum possible for local HB claim, CT for Band A in local area + tax credits/child benefit) gives an income after housing costs of £253 and some loose change, so unemployed man is about £13-14 down on the whole deal and around £40 shy of 40% premium figure for a couple.

What still bites are the HB & CT tapers, childcare costs if single mum then goes out to work and any of the kids are under 5, and the other kicker, which is the upper payment limit on HB claims which doesn't effect social housing but would kick in if they rented privately.

Field is still putting up an invalid comparison as his 'headline' figure, ignoring the effect of high marginal tax rates due to the various tapers and advocating... what exactly?

He talks about 're-weighting' the tax credits system in favour of two parent families, which seem to imply a neutral cost solution that merely shifts money from one group to the other, i.e. incentivising two-parent families by driving lone parents further into poverty on the assumption that that will herd more lone parents in relationships.

I really don't see that economic incentives/disincentives are that significant a factor in deciding on your living arrangement. You may get some couples who maintain the pretense of living separately because there's a degree of financial benefit in such an arrangement to regularise things - but technically that's actually reducing the level of fraud by non-declaration of personal circumstances - but not lone parents actively looking for a partner just because there's the prospect of a bit of extra cash. People just don't operate like that.

Tim - wouldn't Adam Smith have considered marriage a moral sentiment and therefore outside the scope of economics?

Tim adds: Long time since I read the Theory of Moral Sentiments so I've no idea.

My original thought here was not whether FF was right or wrong.....but over the whole level of support being given. I'm all for eradicating absolute poverty and absent things like mental health problems we've pretty much done so in the UK.
I'm very much less interested in inequality...but even for those who are, isn't raising the single parent two kids working very part time income over the median household income for the country as a whole...isn't that too much eradication of inequality even if we are defining it as 60% of median income?
That was the thing that caught my eye on the first pass and the thing I found difficult to believe.

Posted by: Unity | Jun 15, 2007 7:20:13 PM

Unity, the point isn't so much that women fail to seek out a man because of the advantages of being alone so much that young women become mothers without first entering secure relationships. There is far more than just economics behind this bastardisation of the populace but the fact that the government creates a financial incentive for it is baffling.

Of course, my confusion on that issue pales compared to that which arises at the notion that it is somehow easier to commit to bringing a life into this world than commit your life to another person.

For all people talk about the economic angle for such decisions being a myth, I have met girls in schools who have said their ambition is to become pregnant for exactly those reasons. Thankfully, I don't teach there anymore.

Posted by: Philip Thomas | Jun 15, 2007 7:34:47 PM

Roger, it is not clear to me why FF chose private renters, whichever way one twists it, there is a huge discincentive to the two-parents model.

A friend of my Mrs was quite upset about an unmarried couple she knows of, where Mum pretends to be a Single Mum with two kids, both by the same partner, who in turn earns an average salary and LIVES WITH HER, in her Housing Association flat, rent paid and all.

If he were officially to move in (Heaven forbid, get married), the household's net income would drop quite significantly. Fact.

People aren't stupid. Fact.

Do you think they will ever 'fess up?

Posted by: Mark Wadsworth | Jun 15, 2007 11:33:10 PM

How about this?

Have kids you cannot afford to look after, go to jail.

Posted by: AntiCitizenOne | Jun 16, 2007 3:50:33 AM

"Have kids you cannot afford to look after, go to jail."

How about we avoid re-introducing debtors jail and the work houses and do something a little kinder yet more radical: pay a national citizens wage and abolish the welfare state?

Posted by: Kay Tie | Jun 16, 2007 9:46:07 AM

Kay Tie, that is exactly what I will do if and when I am in charge. Big "if" though.

Posted by: Mark Wadsworth | Jun 16, 2007 10:22:22 AM

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