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October 31, 2006
A Climate Scientist on the Stern Review
William Connelly (with whom I have clashed swords before: politely but our views have certainly differed) is a real climate researcher. Here's one para of his first reading of the Stern Review:
Before I get back to that, I notice "If the Greenland or West Antarctic Ice Sheets began to melt irreversibly, the rate of sea level rise could more than double, committing the world to an eventual sea level rise of 5 - 12 m over several centuries.". Errrm... centuries? Current SRL is 2-3 mm/yr, ie 20-30 cm/century. Double that to 40-60 and you're a fair few centuries into the future before you hit 5m, let alone 12. SRL is the "great white hope" of impacts, since its unequivocally bad (at least I've never seen anyone assert it to be a good). 5m is SRL in a millenium might well cause problems, true, but I'm not really happy looking that far ahead - tech could do anything by then.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the idea that we much abolish capitalism now in order to fend of the drowning of millions now, is it?
(Yes, yes, I know, Stern isn't advocating the abolition of capitalism either.)
October 31, 2006 in Climate Change | Permalink
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Comments
SLR might be a good for those of us who fancy a boat-house at the bottom of the garden.
Posted by: dearieme | Oct 31, 2006 5:10:20 PM
"SLR might be a good for those of us who " live 140' above sea level in North London, and are nearing retirement. All those drowned prats in Chelsea, Battersea, Richmond, Barnes etc, bearing huge wads of wonga and looking for new homes.
How's the desertification of Portugal going?
Tim adds: We're expected to get warmer wetter winters here: the opposite of desertifiction in fact.
Posted by: dave heasman | Nov 1, 2006 1:37:25 PM
