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April 11, 2006

Timmy Elsewhere

AT TCS on climate change. Yes, there’s been some recent good news plus a bit of bad. Also at the ASI taking a snark at the new economics foundation.

April 11, 2006 in The Blogger Himself | Permalink

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Rather brushes over the points that 3 degrees is bang in the middle of the existing predictions - ie all this paper does is rule out some of the really extreme low-p scenarios - and that a 3 degree rise will still bring about almost all the bad effects about which we have been warned by "statist Europhile closet socialist envirolunatics".

Posted by: ajay | Apr 11, 2006 11:43:49 AM

Nice one on tcs, Tim.

Here's a thought - CO2 levels rising from 0.03% of atmosphere to 0.05% is an increase in CO2 of 0.02% - (2 parts per ten thousand). Looking at temperature and using absolutes, we see that the temperature of the biosphere is about 300 degrees Kelvin. So, an increase of say 3 degrees in temperature is a 1% increase in absolute temperature.

Some might find it difficult to believe that an increase in C02 of 2 parts per ten thousand is likely to increase the temperature of the Earth by one part per hundred (1%).

This is not science, but it is an attempt to get some "measure" and "scale".

Of course, if I were a greenie, I could use temperature measured in Celsius and so get a temperature increase of 3 degrees on 30 degrees Celsius and so a 10 percent increase in temperature - but that would be intellectually dishonest.

Posted by: johnny bonk | Apr 11, 2006 2:30:40 PM

Here's a thought - CO2 levels rising from 0.03% of atmosphere to 0.05% is an increase in CO2 of 0.02% - (2 parts per ten thousand). Looking at temperature and using absolutes, we see that the temperature of the biosphere is about 300 degrees Kelvin. So, an increase of say 3 degrees in temperature is a 1% increase in absolute temperature.
Some might find it difficult to believe that an increase in C02 of 2 parts per ten thousand is likely to increase the temperature of the Earth by one part per hundred (1%).

Even if this suggestion was based on any physical foundation whatever, you are confusing absolute with proportional increase. CO2 going up from 0.03% to 0.05% is not an increase of 0.02%. It is an increase of 0.02 percentage points in absolute terms, or 67% in relative terms.


This is not science

Never a truer word spoken.

Posted by: ajay | Apr 11, 2006 3:11:58 PM

Ajay,

"CO2 going up from 0.03% to 0.05% is not an increase of 0.02%." - YES IT IS.

I don't understand your hostility to my post.

I make a point that an influence measured in parts per ten thousand may indeed not have an effect measured in parts per hundred - especially when CO2 is not the major factor in the Earth's temperature. The atmosphere in general traps the sun's heat, absolute CO2 levels are low and will remain so - it is easy to suppose that temperature rises will also be low.

Posted by: johnny bonk | Apr 11, 2006 3:48:20 PM

But you're comparing an absolute increase to a relative one. It's just silly. If you compare relative to relative, you've got a 67% CO2 increase leading to only a 1% temperature increase.

It's like this. Say the tax rate on new computers is 5%, and that's raising £100 million. I propose increasing the tax rate to 10%, which, I say, would raise a total of £200 million.

Your argument is the equivalent of saying "Well, that doesn't sound right. 10% minus 5% is 5%. But £200 million is double £100 million - a 100% increase. How can he get a 100% increase in revenues when he's only increasing the tax rate by 5%?"

Can you see why that's flawed reasoning?

But the broader point is that you're not a climatologist, and you've got no knowledge of the subject. You're just saying "it seems strange to me" based on your (forgive me) utterly ignorant gut feeling. Please stop it.


Posted by: ajay | Apr 13, 2006 4:32:38 PM